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I think there are two serious problems with this argument.

Arguments like this don't actually compare theism with atheism given some datum they compare atheism or naturalism simpliciter with a very specific version of theism: one on which God is a perfectly good being with unconstrained power, knowledge, and a particular set of intentions toward creation. So the comparison isn't A vs T, it's really A vs (T & tri-omni & a-set-of-intentions), where all the heavy lifting is being done by the add-ons rather than by bare theism itself. But once you see that, the move loses much of its force because you can attach analogous add-ons to atheism or naturalism just as easily. Nagel's teleological naturalism is exactly this: atheism plus the thesis that mind and value are fundamental features of reality with an intrinsic tendency toward realization. Aristotelian naturalism is another: naturalism plus a robust account of natural teleology grounded in what kind of thing we are. Both of these predict moral knowledge and agency without God. So if the datum is evidence for anything, it's not evidence for theism over atheism as such for that you'd need to show that bare theism, once updated on the datum, yields a higher posterior than bare atheism does. What the argument actually shows, at best, is that the datum is evidence for versions of theism that already have built into them the intentions and values that make the datum expected.

The second problem concerns the first premise of the argument itself. If we grant that there are objective moral facts, then there are also objective facts about evil: that suffering is bad, that cruelty is wrong, that vast amounts of undeserved harm occur, that a vast amount of evil appears to be gratuitous. These facts are in significant tension with the specific version of theism being invoked here, namely one featuring an omnipotent, omniscient, and perfectly good creator. So even if we agree that P(moral knowledge & agency & facts | atheism) is very low, it's not obvious why P(moral knowledge & agency & facts | theism-with-omni-properties) wouldn't be even lower (it appears to be).

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